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Road to the White House

Series/Special. (2012) New events on the campaign trail in the final days before the election. New.

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Us 15, Tom Smith 12, Pittsburgh 12, Terry Madonna 11, Barack Obama 11, Robert Gleason 9, Josh Shapiro 8, Obama 7, Casey 5, Chester 5, Scranton 5, Romney 5, Paul Ryan 4, Pat Toomey 4, Bob Casey 4, Washington 4, Gleason 4, Erie 3, Corbett 3, America 3,
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  CSPAN    Road to the White House    Series/Special.  (2012) New events on the campaign  
   trail in the final days before the election. New.  

    October 28, 2012
    6:30 - 8:00pm EDT  

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that the tactics that president obama is using talking about binders, bay nets, big bird, some of these, you know, gimmicky things are rubbing people the wrong way, in part, because they want to focus on jobs and the economy, which is this big kind of darker issue that the country is facing right now and it's worrying people a lot. and so the idea that he can talk about things like, you know, the binders comment, which is really just a play off a comment that mitt romney made during the presidential debate where he talked about his destroyer to hire a lot of women, that's kind -- it's not helping him, and i think that's reflected in the poll numbers, because you're seeing right now, romney is it tied or seems to have kind of a momentum, i guess, moving into the final week and that's what pollsters are saying. i think that democrats feel that this will help, particularly with women voters, because they make up the majority of the electorate, and if they can kind of put forward this argument that mitt romney wants to take away some things that are very important to them, then they can
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get the edge amongst that party electorate, which in a very close election, can be really critical. >> susan of the washington examiner, neil of roll call, thank you both for being with us on news makers for this sunday. it's interesting that we as a society have given our information out. >> we were looking in to cyber and cyber security and cyber war. the pentagon had declared cyberspace the environment of people and machines and networks, as a new domain of
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war. and yet, we realized that maybe one in a thousand people really understood what cyberspace was and the degree and depth of the vulnerabilities. and so what we're trying to do in the zero day series is to take pieces of it and explain the fundamentals and the platoon i can idea is that -- p mr. speaker atonic idea is everybody from my mom and dad and to people in the congress, everybody can understand and so maybe start the process of coming up with ways to defend cyberspace better. >> cyberspace vulnerabilities, monday night at 8:00 p.m. eastern on "the communicators" on c-span2. >> president obama went to the headquarters of the federal emergency management agency today to get an update on preparations for hurricane sandy. the national response coordination center in washington is where fema is managing the deployment of federal resources to states
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along the east coast, ahead of the storm. >> thank you. >> keep it up. thank you. >> great job. >> >> across the country are concerned about the potential impact of hurricane sandy. this is a serious and big storm and my first message is to all the people across the eastern seaboard, mid-atlantic, going north, that your need to take this industry seriously. and follow the instructions of your state, and local officials because they are going to be providing you with the best advice in terms of how to deal with this storm over the coming days. we've just had an excellent meeting with the fema team here, the various agencies that are in charge, including the department of defense, department of energy, and those that are going
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to need to respond very quickly. under craig fewgate's leadership at fema, we've had a chance to talk to the regional officials as well and i just had a phone call with the governors of potentially impacted states as well as some of the major cities in the region. at this stage, everybody is confident that the staging process, the prepositioning of presource, commodities, equipment that are going to be needed to respond to the storm are in place, but as craig has emphasized, this hasn't hit landfall yet, so we don't yet know where it's going to hit, where we're going to see the biggest impacts, and that's exactly why it's so important for us to respond big and respond fast as local information starts coming in. i want to thank hall the members of the team -- all the members of the team for the outstanding work they're doing but the other thing that makes this storm unique, we anticipate it is going to be slow moving. that means that it may take a
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long time not only to clear, but also to get for example, the power companies back into clear trees, and to put things back in place so that folks can start moving back home. so my main message to everybody involved is that we have to take this seriously, the federal government is working effectively with the state and local governments, it's going to be very important that populations in all the impacted states take this seriously, listen to your state and local elected officials. my message to the governors as well as to the mayors is anything they need, we will be there. and we're going to cut through red tape. we're not going to get bogged down with a lot of rules. we want to make sure that we are anticipating and leaning forward into making sure that we've got the best possible response to what is going to be a big and messy system, so again, thank you everybody. craig, would you like to add something?
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>> again, ration the president says, it's going to really come done to the public heeding the evacuation orders, taking protective measures. they can go to tray.gov to get information on how to protect your neighbors. this is going to be a big storm, we need to be there for each other. >> let me emphasize that again. ready.gov for the general public. if you need to know how to respond, that's where you can get centralized information, but i think craig's point is exactly right. in times like this, one of the things that americans do is we pull together and we help out one another and to there may be elderly populations in your area, check on your neighbor, check on your friend, make sure that they are prepared. if we do, then we're going to get through the storm just fine, but we're going to have to make sure that we are vigilant and vigilant for a couple of days. don't anticipate that just because the immediate storm has passed, that we're not going to have some potential problems in a lot of these communities going forward through the week. all right.
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thank you very much everybody. >> this is the downsizing of one of 10,000 homes that they are trying to get done in the next four years, over the course of four years, these are houses that are never coming back. >> one family every 20 minutes moving out. >> it's going back to the prairie and these houses are just disappearing from the landscape? >> yes. >> just recently, 164 firefighters were laid who have as part of the sort of downsizing, as part of this effort for mayor bain to get the
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finances under control in the city, so firefighters, which detroit needs, because -- i think it must have the highest case of arson in the country, these guys are laid off. about two weeks later, miraculously, 100 guys are rehired and when you look to find out where that money came from, it's actually the department of homeland security has a fund for things like that, and i don't want to, you know, overstate, but i was -- that's something you want to think about. the department of homeland security needed to step into keep detroit, you know, as safe as it can be for the moment. it could be a lot safer, so we're talking about, i wonder, and i wondered making this film, we've seen the auto industry bailout, we've seen the bank bailout. are we heading in to an era of bail out the city. is there such a thing as a failed city? >> more with heidi ewing of detropia on c-span's q & a.
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>> we are focusing on key battleground states in 2012. today, the spotlight state, pennsylvania and joining us from harrisburg is terry madonna, he is with the centers for politics and public affairs as the director at franklin and marshal college. thanks very much for being with us. >> good& morning, steve. is >> let me begin with a broadyou overview of the political geography of pennsylvania and the comparison between east andn west. in your state. between east and west in your state. guest: first of all, like any battleground state, pennsylvania as large parts that are read, large parts that are blue. if we just take a look at the western part of the state, the southwest in particular, if you go out into the pittsburgh area and the counties surrounding it, they are a democratic in voter registration, but once you leave the pittsburgh metropolitan area, which is
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democratic, you run into the old mining towns where coal, steel, lead, paint, glass, all of those industries that made the pennsylvania economy dominates, particularly steel and coal, over the course of about 40 years after world war ii, those industries went away and the economy suffered severely. those voters out there were typically democratic, both -- blue-collar, working class men and women. and they were pro-union. these were the quintessential reagan democrats. they would be in counties adjacent to pittsburgh like a beaver, westmoreland, further to the east. as of late, they have had a
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propensity to vote republican, particularly in big elections. pro gun,onservative, pro life, not fond of gay rights. if you draw a big "t" in the center of the state and fan out towards the new york border, not quite to hear your the northeastern part of the state -- not quite to erie, it's white, protestant, no definable ethnic group. once you go east of the susquehanna river, with the exception of a few counties, the demography changed sharply. let's go down to the southeast. philadelphia, heavily democratic. the four suburban counties are the swing counties. two of those counties now have a
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democratic registration and two of them are republican-ended. we have to do very well in those swing counties to carry pennsylvania then move up to the north, a lehigh valley, allentown, bethlehem. if you take the four suburban counties and the two lehigh valley counties, swing counties the whole way. if you win them in aggregate, you win the total vote and you will probably win the state of pennsylvania. in lackawanna and lucerne's, heavily democratic. the scranton may be best known. joe biden is from there. hillary clinton's father was born there. everyone starts to campaign in scranton in one way or another.
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in sitcoms, scranton is a town. they have an extra gene for politics. host: we have a phone line set aside for those of you who live in pennsylvania. we want to hear from you as we focus our series here on the key battleground states. terry madonna, since 1988, pennsylvania has gone democratic. last time they vote republican was for george herbert walker bush. why? guest: 2 when the suburban voters, as i pointed out a moment ago, they come out of philadelphia with a huge edge and that is the largest municipality in the state with a heavy concentration of democrats. if you win philadelphia in the out of thet's say southeast by 650,000 votes, it's pretty difficult to overcome
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that edge in other parts of the stage even if republicans win the infamous "t" we referred to. the other thing to remember about pennsylvania is that it is dominated by one television market. there are six tv markets in the state, but philadelphia covers 40% of the voters in the state. all of delaware and the southern half of new jersey. in order to be effective in the television advertising business, you have to really advertise in the philadelphia television market which goes all the way up to lehigh valley, way out into the western area moving closer to the susquehanna river. where i live just east of susquehanna, you can get philadelphia television, but it
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is other counties that go right up to lehigh valley. very important television market. this is what the democrats were able to do. they do very well in the suburbs. hold on to pittsburgh get hold their own in those counties out in the southwestern part of the state that increasingly have voted republican in the elections. host:. . is 20 electoral votes. obama won by 10 percentage points. unemployment is mirroring what we have nationwide, 8.2%. neighboring ohio is getting an awful lot of attention with their 18 electoral votes. what is so different between ohio and pennsylvania that makes ohio more of a battleground than pennsylvania at the moment? guest: the essential differences ohio has a good many more moderate independent voters at
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this point which are likely to either vote republican or democrat. as i pointed out a moment ago, the recent democrats have done well is because they have captured the suburbs in our state in the recent presidential elections which has been the defining difference. in the middle of ohio and columbus, that is a battleground. there, obviously with cleveland, but in the northeastern part of the state being democratic and cincinnati and out west be more republican. ohio just has a larger pool of these swing voters, if you will, and are more evenly balanced between the democratic and republican regions of the state. pennsylvania has a huge portion of moderate independent-minded voters and they can swing the
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state either way, depending if they bounce back one way or another. it the current governor of our state, two years ago when republicans swept pennsylvania, as they did in many other parts of the state, for example, every one of those swing counties have been talking about, with the exception of two he won chester county, a lehigh county, northampton county, and he got a few on the fringes as well. i like to put it this way. we are not quite new jersey and we are not quite purple as ohio is. we are light blue. under the right circumstances, republicans can win our state. right now, the race has been pretty stable for the last two or three weeks. host: but me ask you about
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election night when returns are coming in the early morning hours. when you look at pennsylvania, what will you be looking for? guest: turnout in philadelphia, vote totals in montgomery and delaware counties. the vote totals in lehigh and northampton. if they are not big counties, but they are the ones that we look to to give us some sense about how the state might go. obviously, you want to know turnout differentials by county to see if there is something markedly different. pennsylvania's turnouts for a much mirrors the turnout nationally. i would not expect the turn out to be more than two percentage points off of what the national turnout was, slightly above 60% of eligible voters nationwide. i think about 62% four years ago. pennsylvania will be in that same range. in a close race, then you have
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to go out into the southwestern part of the state into those counties, the blue-collar working class counties. typically, reporting in pennsylvania comes early as in the urban areas and at times, when elections are clutch, they will be waiting for the boats out west to come in that can often make a difference as to which candidate will win or lose. host: our guest is terry madonna. he has written plenty of books about pennsylvania politics. he is the director at the center for politics and public affairs and is a professor of franklin and marshall college. he works with wtae and "the pittsburgh tribune review." the morning. thank you for waiting. >> good morning. thank you for taking my call. -- caller: good morning.
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i wanted your guest to address the redistricting efforts. i live in lehigh valley and the are trying to redraw the district lines. even as pennsylvania goes democratic this election and, they are doing everything they can to make sure that changes in the future. i think it was overshadowed by the voter i.d. issue going on in pennsylvania this year, but i was hoping you could maybe explain that to us and what it means. host: thank you. guest: karen may be talking about the congressional redistricting which took place last year. basically, pennsylvania has 1 million more registered democrats and republicans and they have 12 republicans in the congressional delegation and six democrats. pennsylvania lost a seat for the reapportionment process.
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the republican controlled legislature essentially redrew the congressional boundary lines moving some seeds that were vulnerable in the eastern portion of the state, three of them in the philadelphia suburbs, for example, and one of them in the lehigh valley and one of them up in scranton. basically, running them west and south to pick up more republicans without getting into the details of it. she lives in one of those areas where the boundary lines were redrawn. i do not know which congressman she would have. it might be in the 15th with congressman dent. now comes into south central pennsylvania. she could be in a seat held by a republican, and that would be the 11th congressional district. that district was redrawn so that it now comes literally the whole way down to the state
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capital. more republicans, but one way to think about that in the moment in competitive terms, no independent analyst believes of the etf's congressional seats that more than two of them are in play. the one that is in play in the west is 12. it's currently held by democrats. maybe we can argue there is a seat in the southeastern part of the state, the eighth congressional district held by congressman fitzpatrick that is in play, but at the end of the day on november 6th, what we will see basically is republicans still easily in control of the congressional delegation in the state. host: bloomberg news has five pennsylvania counties to watch on election night including chester, a lehigh, one row in comparison to what happened in
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2004-2008. all in the eastern and southeastern parts of pennsylvania. on the fallout from jim thorpe pennsylvania. caller: good morning. how are you doing yo? i have more of a comment. the lady was talking about redistricting and also the voter ideologue. with the republican party, what they did it to the libertarian and the constitution party, the republican party is not a choice on the ballot. with the voter i.d. law, all they want to do is disenfranchise the voter. okay? the republican party but the libertarian party through hell, to be honest with you.
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just to get 1% of the boat off the ballot. -- of the vote off. the libertarian party never got more than 1% of the votes nationally and i think it's ridiculous. i have volunteered for the libertarian party. they were arguing over signatures. what a waste of time and taxpayers' money because that had to all go in to the courts. host: terry madonna, third parties and the pennsylvania ballot. guest: gary johnson will be on the ballot house will -- as will jill stein of the green party. pennsylvania can write someone in. we will essentially have four two choices. host: the headline this morning
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from "the philadelphia inquirer ." joining us is the politics writer from "the enquirer." thank you for being with us. share with us these polling numbers. how many did you survey and what are the results? caller: it was a survey of 600 likely voters all last week, tuesday through thursday. the margin of error is four percentage points. basically, it has narrowed a little bit. there was a swing towards romney about net two percentage points. the last poll, just after the first debate, this is sort of edging up with obama having a steady lead. it is a democratic leaning state these days. there has not been an awful lot of campaign activity in terms of visits by the candidates or
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advertising. they have now really targeted the state this year on like 2008 in the last previous four cycles. host: there has been an awful lot of advertising in the senate races. your polls are showing that the senate race has been considerably closer. he is still holding onto a slight lead, seven points over republican tom smith. what has been happening in that race? caller: is a simple matter if you spend $17 million of your own money, you can get hearing from people. the senator is a member of an institution that is not really very popular these days, the congress. smith is gaining traction just on the strength of his message.
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and introducing himself to voters. that could be one of the surprises on election night. host: what can republicans read in these polling numbers? caller: on the presidential race? president obama is up 49%, still below 50%. it seems pennsylvania could be a little bit more competitive if they made a last-minute push. in fact, there is one of the for jobc's, americans security, they have bought a lot of time in the philadelphia market, and maybe more by now. it's quite possible because they will be making at least a tentative plan for the state. it could be within reach.
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this is just based on the national trend. based on news coverage of what's going on in the race generally. they have voter contact on the ground, but no real number moving adds. this could have some potential. caller: -- host: what can democrats read into the polling numbers? caller: if you go further down into the poll, there are some unusually high percentages of pennsylvania voters approving of obama's job performance, which is unusual. democrats could feel probably a little reassurance. it's kind of difficult to imagine a president with with that high of approval in this kind of environment the getting thrown out, getting rejected.
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host: thomas fitzgerald, who covers politics for "the philadelphia inquirer." thank you for being with us. but it back to your phone calls. mike from pennsylvania, democratic line. good morning. caller: the morning, steve and terry. with controversy about the voter id lot to suppress turnout, do you think that this will in any way suppress turnout? if so, will it be enough to affect the margins in any way? thanks. guest: last march, the legislature passed a law that required pennsylvania voters to show up with one of six approved photo id's. if you did not have one, they would provide you with one but
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you have to go through certain procedures to get one. more recently, in the last three weeks, a judge in our states simply set aside that particular provision of law so that when pennsylvanian is go to vote on november 6th, you will be asked to show one of those six forms of identification. if you do not have one, you will still be permitted to vote. your vote will count. for all practical purposes, pennsylvania will be asked to do what they were asked to do in april during the spring primary. show an identification. if you do not have one, that's fine. there are about 175 organizations in this state that have been working to be sure that pennsylvania understands
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the procedures that will be followed. i do not think it's going to have a huge impact, as it might have had if you were required to provide a form of identification and then be allowed to vote provisionally. without getting too technical, it meant within six days, you had to provide one of those six forms in order for your vote to count. in the and, i do not think it will make a huge difference. even though there is some confusion about where it stands now, there has been a lot going on to try to explain that to people. i think voters will show up and it will not be a huge controversy. the law remains in effect. the forms of identification, the constitutionality of that, which has been challenged and it has not yet been finalized by the highest court, the state supreme court. some think that will likely occur next year.
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host: early voting under way in half of the country. colorado, nevada, florida, ohio, virginia, and new hampshire are swing states that already have early voting period is not in pennsylvania. why not? guest: talks you can vote by absentee but it has to be a particular reason. we do not have early voting. you just cannot get a ballot and use it too early voting. you have to be ill, out of the state. essentially, for all practical purposes, voting will be on november 6th in pennsylvania. one argument that has been used about why there are no television commercials is we may see some in philadelphia or pittsburgh by the romney
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campaign. some say it is just to reach the eastern parts of ohio. this is largely because there's no reason to communicate with voters simply because there's no early voting. there is no air time. you cannot buy any more. there is plenty in pennsylvania though. we were the second bust advertised state from about the third week in september to labor day four years ago. something like $29 million. up until this point, what, that gerald was talking about, the ad by -- what tom fitzgerald was talking about, there has been no ad buy. we have had only two since the convention. romney in the philadelphia area
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and paul ryan to pittsburgh. for 40 visits between labor day and election day in 2008. now we are just the surrogate capital. josh romney, and romney, debbie wasserman shultz. we're not getting the main . getting the main lineres. host: will that change in the next nine days? guest: i'm sure you'll hear more about that from robert gleason and the argument that pennsylvania could still be in play. the race has gotten very stable. as the context has changed nationally, it cold present on obama from a 7, 8, 9 point lead.
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the range was then 7-10. now the range is 5-7. as it narrowed nationally, pennsylvania remains on the cusp of whether or not it will be competitive. host: here is the map in the last two elections. pennsylvania is referred to as pennsylvania and pittsburgh with a "t" in the middle. erie, the greater pittsburgh area and the eastern part of the state most notably around philadelphia. loretta from pennsylvania,
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republican line with terry madonna. caller: hello? host: you're on the air. caller:ok. my comment is i think obama should be impeached for allowing the ambassador, after requesting help three times and being denied. they were told to stand down. you cannot say the president did not know about it. they are dancing around this issue. i think this should be made in national issue. i'm very disappointed in him and hillary clinton, her being a mother and a woman. i think it's just disgusting. host: you had a chance to rest the president the question on this issue, what would you ask? what is your question? caller: why did you have those guys murder? that would be my question. why?
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i want to know why he did not send help in when he could. he cannot tell me he could not. host: terry madonna, on this issue generally in foreign policy, how is that playing out in pennsylvania? guest: there is no doubt that the president had a pretty substantial lead on foreign policy in the polls that have been done. that lead has certainly narrowed to four, five, six points in the polls i looked at just last week. the been gauzy issue has certainly played a pretty significant role in that decline. on been gauzy, it's hard to say exactly how that would play a politically. i do think the administration has a lot to answer for objectively for how they handled it and what the president and vice-president new or did not know when any time and how they responded to the request for
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security. we do not have time to get in the details of that. typically that would not be decisive. we will not go to the moral question that the caller raised, but in political terms, it's not likely to be decisive, but it's certainly not helpful to the president. it is still in the polls that i have done and others have done largely about the economy. host: this was just a few days ago from politicio. republicans are intrigued and they may strike with advertising. been: that's what we have talking about. let's put it this way. if romney gets virginia and florida of, that's not out of
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the question. he has 248 then. the magic number is 270. ohio has a team. -- ohio has 18. that gets into 266, four short. then he only has to win one of the other four battleground states that you have been covering from new hampshire, wisconsin, iowa, colorado. if he loses ohio, then he needs a combination of three of the four, a much bigger hurdle. if he could win pennsylvania, that's 20 electoral votes. the thinking is he has to win one or the other. if he wins pennsylvania and the president were to lose my state, he loses the presidential election, i think. pennsylvania in a sense becomes
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the firewall for president obama. it becomes the ultimate fire wall. the real question is if what happens in virginia, which is very close, florida looks like it is tilting a little bit more toward romney, so it is like a checkerboard. what republicans have to think about is this -- they have tens of millions of dollars that they're probably cannot use in other states which they could put in pennsylvania. if they could miraculously win come about which change the dynamic of the election and probably lead to a romney victory. host: from redding, pennsylvania, good morning. caller: i wanted to remind my fellow people in pennsylvania that to vote is your duty. you need to come out and vote. host: what traditionally has
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been voter turnout in pennsylvania? guest: usually mirrors the national average in turnout. we are all looking at that. some of us do not think the turnout will quite reach what it was in 2008. the standard better used is eligible voters, not registered voters. i doubt if we will reach 60%. who knows? as you were talking about earlier with professor mac donald, we have a huge turnout operations going on. the republicans have certainly learned from the democrats in 2008. arguably, they got an extra point or two, some say more, by virtue of their turnout efforts. whether we can get above that 60% of the eligible voters threshold remains to be seen. it's likely to be a little lower
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given what we are seeing in voter motivation, but the grand game will be key and it may well determine to take a state like ohio, which in this morning's newspaper polls, they are dead even, 49-49. turnout could be key. our turnout will mirror the national turnout. raw host: obama losing the pennsylvania primary to hillary clinton in 2008. here is this point. will that resonate in 2012? guest: that is a comment that has stuck in the south and in more conservative democratic areas. the president made that statement at a san francisco fund-raiser in the midst of the
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democratic primary in pennsylvania in march and april, that big primary in 2008. there were six weeks where there was literally nothing else going on in the campaign except the upcoming pennsylvania primary. that became a huge issue. what it does remind voters, particularly in the southwest, of the president's position on guns. pennsylvania is a strong nra pro gun state. it has been difficult for gun control advocates to get legislation through pennsylvania sort of changing the gun was here. i do not see any opportunity will likelihood that it will change in the foreseeable future. i do not know if that is a decisive comment, but it lingers on as a problem with the
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president in parts of the state. host: republican line, pennsylvania, good morning. caller: i am on the county line between what the wants and -- lackawanna and scranton. many voters say they vote the person and not a party. the democratic party here has been run by two long-term senators that are currently either indicted or are being convicted. and then we have the democratic judges. having most voters said they but the person not a party, do you think the level of disgust with the corruption of these convictions, do you think they will finally give both candidates and honest shake down and listen to what they have to say? from the indication of yard
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signs, i feel it romney win in my bones in pennsylvania. what say you? guest: the gentleman refers to an exceptionally difficult time, to put it mildly, four pennsylvania lawmakers where we have a large number being prosecuted by both the federal government and the attorney general of the state. the governor, when he was attorney general. this state has historically had problems among its public officials. having said that, i think the presidential election is viewed differently by the voters. they are not going to go back, for the most part, and say my state senator was indicted for public corruption charges, therefore i will not vote for president obama. i do not think that calculus those in to the presidential elections, at least when we talk to voters.
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they're quite capable of separating the two. in pennsylvania, we also have higher levels of partisanship than we do in many other states. it is still a state rooted in heavy partisanship. the big exception to that is the philadelphia suburbs, a lehigh valley, and there are areas of the state where you do not have partisanship strong voter identification. i cannot think these incidents are likely to change the outcome of the election. romney, obama, in its own environment and it will be decided on issues and personalities of the candid in their quality, a quite separate. host: terry madonna, there has been eight years of a democratic administration in the state house and eight years of a republican governor and now gov. corbett. you have elected republican
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senators in the state including rick santorum and now split between pat toomey and bob casety. it has been a pretty divided state when it comes to elected officials across pennsylvania. guest: that's right. in that sense, we are a quintessential swing state. each party is capable at the state level of winning an election. in 2006, that was the iraq war election. there was hostility and a low approval rating for president bush. 2008 was the recession election. then the republicans swept back in control. both houses of the state legislature, the senate had been republican, and the state house by the biggest edge, 112 republicans, 91 democrats, the biggest edge any party has had since the 1950's. and it senator pat to me -- sen.
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pat toomey elected by nine percentage points. we have three statewide offices up for election in the state, auditor general, attorney general, and state treasurer. they are very spirited contest. we often have a split winners in those elections. the state could go for obama, as it did in 2008. but they could elect a republican attorney general. that's not uncommon. pennsylvania, despite the fact that we're seeing more straight party voting in the last three elections than we used to come unless ticket splitting, but they will still split tickets and elected democrat or republican statewide in a very competitive state despite the fact that pennsylvania has now five times gone democratic in presidential elections.
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host: your election forecast? another nail biter? guest: i think so. i do not think there will be much change in the legislature. maybe a few seats the republicans can pick up. it will stay the same. the congressional delegation will remain republican. your probably have to give pup -- president a slight edge of this becomes stable with this five-six point lead he house on average. -- he house on average. if you can push to the slightly favoring the president as we move into november 6th. host: terry madonna joining us from paris
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since the convention, very little statewide. guest: i do not really know. they have been here a couple of times, but they are making a real effort. we have a very expansive program, in which millions of dollars are spent. we have 25 victories centers. we have over 800 paid employees on the ground. they have made a commitment. they have not made an electronic media commitment, but paul ryan was here in pittsburgh just a few weeks ago, and mrs. romney has been here. i am not privy to some of those decisions. host: not much of the president and vice president since the attention -- convention.
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why is that? >> more than 50 field offices, thousands of volunteers have been going around, knocking on doors, making phone calls. we are a bottom-up campaign. we understand this is going to be one on election day. i am proud to be associated, and i am confident we will have a victory. >> josh, you are from one area. among them, chester, monroe, and another county. why are these so critical to both campaigns in november?
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guest: if you look at the poll that came out, president obama has a lead in the five-county areas. he has maintained that leads throughout in all of the various polls. i think the extreme positions of mitt romney, a woman's right to choose, number one, really puts him at odds with the moderates and stability in pennsylvania, and i am confident that the numbers the president will show in the suburbs will propel him to victory in pennsylvania. host: as you know, pennsylvania was referred to as philadelphia and alabama in the middle. there was this that said to make it close, mitt romney has to win big. what does he mean by that? guest: he has to win big in the central part of the state. we call it the t. there are two republican
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counties. it spreads across. he is going to do really well there. mitt romney is doing terrific in the t. i cannot believe our results down there. if you remember, in the primary, hillary clinton beat president obama. those people are very upset about the war on coal and the president dissing the coal business. i do not agree with josh. we are doing very well in the philadelphia suburbs. this is going to be a surprise for the democrats. the people are not buying into the president's policies and the fact that he has not been able to create jobs and a lot of things that he promised, and he has no plans for the future. the counties that you mentioned, including chester, we are doing
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very well. in fact, i cannot believe the we are ahead in that county. our polls show that this is a dead even race. i think "be enquirer" has looked at it getting closer and closer. it is going to be a battle. there is no question about it. we think we have the best ground game in the country. it is going to be a wonderful battle on election day. host: we have an average of all the polls giving the president in pennsylvania and ed, 4.8%, based on all the surveys. over barack obama. josh shapiro, the senate race could also affect turnout. senator casey is ahead. would you admit this race is a lot closer? guest: tom smith has spent nearly $20 million of its personal fortune spreading around his anti party message.
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anytime you invest $20 million in advertising, it will affect a race. what have seen in the latest polls, the race is stabilizing in the senator is strong, someone who enjoys support not just in the philadelphia suburbs but areas across the commonwealth where democrats do not often do that well. he is a unique political individual, an outstanding public servant. he will win this race and so will president obama. one or the other may run a point or two ahead, but which will be ahead of the other? i have to take exception with something chairman gleason said. if the race is as close as he says it is common no poll has shown it as close as he says, then you would see mitt romney here.
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as john mccain was four years ago spending the money that they spent. this is a close race in the sense that all states will be close and this will be a very divided electorate, but pennsylvania remains firmly in the president's call amanda will be delivered by the strong ground game have been building under the leadership of our outstanding democratic chairman and our great executive director. we know how to win elections in pennsylvania on the ground. we are a bottom up party. we understand how to pull it off and we will. iran host: table discussion on -- host: roundtable discussions, pennsylvania politics. josh shapiro is the chairman of the montgomery county board of commissioners, a democrat, and robert gleason, the chairman of the republican party inwe have a phone line set aside for those of you who live in the keystone state. the number is -- from erie, pa., good morning. caller: good morning.
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i have two concerns. if you years back, i had a friend who was disabled in a wheelchair and i pushed him to the voting place of that he could register. we voted in the rain, on foot. he voted, came back, and a few weeks letter -- later, a letter came in affirming he was a registered voter. we had to fill that out. much of it was in spanish. it was very discouraging. he never voted again. i'm wondering if that's going to happen with a lot of people who are immigrants. we have a lot of immigrants in erie. have done something confirming especially with this voter id thing. host: robert gleason, would you like to address this?
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guest: i'm not aware of that procedure. the voter id, as terry madonna mentioned, identification will be required. the president showed his idea in chicago the other day. this has spread across the nation. people still have to show their photo i.d. and i think you need to. you need to show it to register in a hotel, get on an airplane the state has gone overboard trying to give these three identifications to people. if they do not have a photo i.d., but they will be asked for it at the polls. 19 other states are doing this. the president did not seem to object to sharing his driver's license when he voted in chicago. host: josh shapiro, i want to address these to you? what is the state of the pennsylvania economy? how much had unions spent across the state?
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guest: the economy is improving in pennsylvania. if you look at what the president inherited, losing 800,000 jobs per month across the country to know gaining a few hundred thousand every month with a few straight months of job creation, we are seeing job creation in pennsylvania. on all different aspects of the energy sector and it has helped natural gas investment here with the marcellis shale. life sciences, education, health care. this is growing a lot due to the president's policies. he has had to combat the governor and many members of chairman gleason's party who have tried to stymie that growth. we want to see those policies take hold in continue to grow.
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one other issue he spoke about, the voter i.d. law, there is still confusion in the commonwealth. the severed by the republican party in pennsylvania and for governor corbett's administration to confuse people, which they do not, is something that i think was votes. i'm not suggesting that was his motive, but it is the motive of some republican. it is unconstitutional. people who want to vote, if they do not have an id, they can still go to the polls and have their constitutional records looked at.
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host: do you want to respond? guest: they will be asked for their photo id. the use of photo id has been accepted by both parties. it is something that is absolutely critical since terrorists attacked us. and homeland security. the right thing to do is to show photo id. the other thing i would like to say that josh said a little bit before, the democrats are worried about pennsylvania. in 2010, we won the u.s. senate seat and the governorship. we won 112 seats in the house. congressmen in pennsylvania. we expect to 12 seats in the house. i feel that tom smith, he said that tom smith spent $20 million. this is a free country. you can spend as many money as you want to. the reason he has been able to
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move forward is that bob casey has done nothing for six years. he has not introduced one bill passed in the united states senate. he fell asleep and tom smith moved up. to criticize tom smith for being tea party tom, i love it. a lot of people embrace the policies of the tea party. >> tea party, smith is not going to sell to the south part of the state. i have no problem with tom smith spend the money from his personal fortune. that is fine. calling senator casey empty. that is wrong. he has been on the front lines of protecting workers' rights. he has made sure our environment has been kept clean. and safe. he has been a leader. senator casey has been a leader on education. he has been an outstanding leader on foreign policy, standing up for allies like
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israel. senator casey has been an outstanding senator. for tom smith to suggest otherwise is wrong. it is fine for tom smith to go on the air and compare his ideas for example wanting to shut down medication -- medicare as we know it. that is a legitimate debate to have. but going on the air and sending $20 million to attack senator casey is what people are sick and tired of. they are done with those types of advertisements. i think that is why tom smith and that brand of politics, he will be rejected in this election. host: let's go to bismarck, north dakota. independent line. nathaniel, thanks for waiting. caller: thank you for having me on. good morning. host: good morning. caller: i would like the floor to yield 10 seconds. if i could reserve 10 more, i would like to be heard a little bit more. host: this is not the u.s. senate. but we will grant that request.
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caller: people who put the u.s. senate in place, my point of view as an independent is, when george bush was our present, -- president, you do not talk about the president negatively. he has the vote of the entire united states. it is the job of the congress and the senate to cooperate with our direct advocates straight from the top. he knows what we want because we voted for him. he made promises. it is your turn to help our president, our advocate. if he wants to make health care universal, help him figure it out, not sit back and figure point. host: let me get a response. we will give you another 10 seconds. i will go to robert gleason in
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pittsburgh. guest: this is america. reelection. a majority of americans are going to feel he has not done a good job and it is time for a new person. the framers of the constitution gave them and years to serve as the president. if the people do not want to support you, they are not going to vote for you. i do not see anything wrong with that. this is america. it is a wonderful system. casey voted with barack obama 90% of the time. if barack obama loses, he will lose, too. he is tied at the waist with barack obama. caller: what i am seen is the american people are aware of the entirety of mitt romney's speech and the 47% and the war in iraq. i would rather have my children hitting good health care or my brothers who have been in iraq and vietnam or my father who was in vietnam and korea -- my
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family has moved around this country. brothers has had a problem. they deserve the treatment they got. host: thank you for the call. we appreciate it. robert gleason and josh shapiro, question. give me one county that will determine when the state is going. will be a bellwether for you. guest: i will look hard at chester county. it is our strongest county in southeastern pennsylvania. i expect them to perform exceptionally. if they do, that means the other counties -- they did a great job four years ago. they carried about by 200,000.
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i expect us to break even this year. host: he leave the area around the philadelphia area when you say caller counties. second largest number of republicans in the state after bucks county. our most republican county in the southeast is chester county. i will look closely at chester county to see how it does. philadelphia is important to us, too. barack obama carried philadelphia by 475,000 votes. four years ago. that was a crusher. there is no question about that.
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i do not think we will lose it by that many. i'd think it sets us up for a major wind. -- win. remember what the inquirer poll said. barack obama has never gotten more than 49% in any of these polls. whether it is head to head or job approval. he has not been able to get over 49%. i think that is what -- you have to get over 49% to be elected president of the united states. host: give me what county that will be a bellwether on election night. guest: i believe one thing the chairman said. i think chester county is an important county to look at. there is no evidence to suggest mitt romney and brought the obama are going to come out of
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the four caller counties even. when you look at what happened in montgomery county four years ago, barack obama came out of chester county up about 20,000 votes. you will certainly see some tightening this time, but you will see the president come out of the five county area will for at least a 600,000 vote margin, which will carry him through the rest of the state. i am looking at montgomery county, and if i may, i could agree that chester county is a bellwether. we have a strong democratic team. i think the president will do well in the southeast. as the chairman and knowledge, the southeast is where it is at. people like mitt romney who are will not play here in the moderate area of pennsylvania. we know how to evaluate candidates and i think people
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will reject mitt romney and tom smith. host: let's go to derry. caller: i would like the guests to address the catholic vote. someone mentioned the extremism has had some extreme positions on the left. guest: whenever barack obama tells the catholic church that they must can see to what the
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national government wants them to do with their health care plan, that was a kick in the sand in the face of catholics. catholics in pennsylvania and those who attend church on a regular basis, it is 56%-33%. will make a huge difference in pennsylvania. host: mary is on the phone, a democrat. good morning. caller: i have a republican sister and brother-in-law. they do not believe in medicare or social security. when my father, a world war ii vet, that kidney cancer, she and us out at all. i quit my job and quit my school to help my parents. i asked my sister, but she would kick in for my dad's surgery had he not have medicare. people depend on medicare and
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social security. for god's sake. my sister would not give you the steam off of herpants on a hot day. for god's sake, do not vote republican. host: mary, thanks for the call. josh, did you want to respond? guest: i am sorry for your personal challenges and the problems in your family. it reminds the voters how president. obamacare is going to protect medicare. it will give people more healthy choices and more options and affordable. it is also important to point out that paul ryan which end -- would end medicare as we know
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it. position with his selection of paul ryan. he would turn medicare into a voucher system. so would tom smith, that is why bob casey and barack obama and joe biden have rejected that position. we cannot hand seniors like mary's family a voucher and say good luck, figure out the health-care system on your own. we need to reform medicare and to make sure it is solvent for the long term. but we cannot take the romney- ended as we know it. that is another reason why obamacare was needed and why it will prove to be ultimately successful in helping people in affordable care. host: robert gleason, yourguest: i support medicare and social security because i get it.
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barack obama has taken money out already. it is a proven fact. they have even admitted it. the thing is that right now, for everybody -- right now, for everybody, medicare and social security are going nowhere. and remember, it is the congress of the united states that will have to make the changes if there are any changes. josh said it needs to be reformed. we need to reform it so that younger people will have it when they need it. guest: the $700 billion taken out of medicare was made to insurance. it was taken out to ensure
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medicare could continue and take care of people like mary's family and take care of bob gleason, who just said he is getting medicare and social security. barack obama will protect medicare. bob casey will protect medicare. period. host: let's go to mike in pennsylvania. many people refer to your part of the state as alabama. do you feel like you live in an alabama-like state? pennsylvania is pittsburgh on the west, philadelphia on the east and george in the middle. -- georgia in the middle. host: what part of pennsylvania? caller: north central, right off of the interstate 8. when barack obama took office,
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42% of the taxpayers were not paying any income tax. people in central pennsylvania and all across the t are getting tired of this class warfare. you look at the most wealthy california, massachusetts, maryland. they are the most democratic states. they are the ones that claim help their constituents. they vote republican. why is that? is not because they are wealthy. it is because they have a value system. they do not want government solving their problems. host: thanks for the call. josh, would you like to respond? guest: there are people in his
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community that may not be paying income taxes right now. the 47% that mitt romney spoke up and that the caller was referring to. it is wrong to cast seniors and veterans aside and suggest they are not paying their fair share. they pay their fair share entity to pay their fair share in other ways. i absolutely and completely reject the claim that mitt romney put forth. it shows how out of touch he is with what is going on in this country an average pennsylvanians. i brought up with terry madonna. pennsylvania is divided in the years, there has been a pattern two terms followed by a democratic governor followed by a republican governor. why is the state so evenly divided when it comes to
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statewide officeholders? coincidence. we have partisanship in pennsylvania. no question about that. our last election showed how big the swing was when we were able to win the house and the state senate. imagine winning five congressmen in one election. only one other state did that. that was new york. 13 will be republican. they call pennsylvania a blue state. year. as mike pointed out -- and i'm sure josh worries about the mikes of the country -- barack obama claims people like him cling to their guns and their bible.
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he said if you are in a coal mine that you might as well sell it, you are going to go pennsylvania. couple of days. host: josh shapiro, we go back to the pattern of two term democrats and two term republicans. the politics of your state? guest: we are a moderate state. we want to see people work together to get things done. montgomery county, for the first time in 140 years, the democratswe understood when we got elected that we would have to work together to get things done.
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together. not understand that. year trends. he is in a vulnerable position. moderate state. we are a state where people evaluate the candidates and havei would like to come back to one thing chairman gleason said earlier. i am a man of faith. we have to explore all of the natural resources for energy in this commonwealth. i support barack obama. he reflects the views and valueshost: josh shapiro is the chair commissioners.
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of the pennsylvania republican party. a response on our twitter page. caller: i ran as an independent representatives two years ago either party. there are issues within the states that need to be addressed. it switches between parties at the attorney general has been of one party for 30 years now. also a sharing or splitting of responsibilities. i am not an advocate for both parties being the only way to vote. i will get to my points or questions.
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button on the ballot that allows an voter to magically select all party line voting. i believe that is unconstitutional. i am surprised we do not get any data on how many times that button was selected in the past elections. we will probably not see that in the upcoming elections. host: we have a response beginning with josh shapiro. the state house. we work to make our elections accessible by extending the time frame for early voting. having early voting. all of the things that are opposed. i think it is important that we make our elections as open and accessible as possible to not just democrats and republicans, but independents and those in host: there is no early voting in pennsylvania and neighboring ohio. why is that? guest: the powers that be have
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rejected that in the past. i think they are wrong. guest: i am against early voting. if you want to vote early, you can vote absentee. governor corbett has had the two budgets on time, which josh could never do. a democratic governor like rendell sent us into the ground and we had to bring the republicans in to provide us with leadership to get government under control. question. are you going to deliver 80,000 votes this time? the margin for barack obama, do you think?
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guest: there is a 20,000 margin in chester county. it came as out of the southeast, plus 600,000. i thought there would be some tightening. i am confident we will come out with a huge margin from the five counties. host: an independent caller from louisiana. caller: i would like to make a statement. one person that will be controlling their party is grover norquist? host: thanks for the call. robert gleason, i will have you respond to the issue of taxes and the deficit.
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guest: people in america do not want to raise taxes. the way to get the deficit under control is to spend less money. we have been taxed enough. grover norquist does a good job. our governor said the same thing. stop spending. host: a democrat from pennsylvania is on the line. caller: my question is for robert gleason. suit. pat toomey voted against a bill he helped write. how am i ever going to vote for republicans when they vote against a bill for political guest: i do not know about that bill. pat toomey is a strong
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supporter of veterans and jobs. but, you know what? he wants to stop spending money. that is why he was sent to washington, to get the costs under control. we as a country -- barack obama has us trillions of dollars in debt. we have had trillion dollar deficit. we cannot do this anymore. it is killing our country. that is why this election is between mitt romney, a businessman, who knows how to run an organization. the scope josh, can you break this down? -- host: josh, can you break this down? guest: there are about a million more democrats than republicans in the commonwealth. the number of democrats continues to grow. the democrats in montgomery county used to be more than 100,000 registrations behind. there are 40,000 registrations ahead. chairman gleason knows that registrations do not vote.
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those margins do not mean the democrats will win by that margin. which is why you have got to be out on the field. you have got to be talking. you have to have an operation that will deliver your people to the polls. i think the democrats have that and that is why you will see barack obama and bob casey do well on november 6. host: turnout on election day. and party registration. guest: i think there will be a big turnout this year, around 60%. there is no intensity on the part of the democrats. i have been traveling around the state. i have not seen the intensity. they had it four years ago. the bloom is off of the rose. the people feel he has not delivered. i do not see the signs or the intensity. as terry madonna said, the turn out will be a little lower. there will be a lot of people voting in this election. we control all the facets of government in pennsylvania.
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incidentally, he he won montgomery county. he did a great job in doing that. 53 of the 67 counties went republican. which is the most in history. there is a republican tide. that is what will make the difference on election day. host: robert gleason, chairman of the republican party in pennsylvania and josh shapiro, a member of the county commission. joining us from philadelphia. gentlemen, thank you for being with us. we appreciate your time this sunday morning. >> tomorrow on "washington journal," we will talk about spending and the money candidates are expected to raise. the center for responsive politics, bob biersack is our guest. we will look at the politics and history of the state with mike
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glover, and then the chairs of the political parties will talk about how they are spending the days before the election. we have syw scieajt bs ,h, aoujwe,'this is live on c-span -- we have sue dvorsky and a.j. spiker. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] for a chance to win a grand prize of $5,000, with $50,000 in total prices, the c-span student cam video competition is open for grades 6 through 12, and the deadline is in 2013. find out more at studentcam.org. de